Brian’s Brainstorm

Benefits of Long Term Investing

Buy and hold may sound like an old fashioned way of investing in equity markets but it makes sense nonetheless.  In today’s hyperactive world where 24/7 financial news channels witter on endlessly about threats to the world economy, there is a heightened temptation to tinker with your investment portfolio.  More often than not this will be a mistake.  It is so difficult to sell at the top of market cycles and buy at the bottom, it is not worth the time and effort trying to do it. The shorter the period you invest your money the lower the chances of making a positive return.

Let me explain.  Taking data from developed world equity markets from 1970 to mid 2017, it was found if you had randomly picked one day during that period and chosen to invest for just one day, you would have a 53% chance of making a positive return; roughly the same as tossing a coin or picking red or black at the roulette wheel.

However if you choose to extend your investment period the chances of making a profit rise dramatically.  Invest for a month and your chances of making money rise to 63%.  Extend your investment period to a year and the probability of success rises to 78%. A ten year investment time horizon has a 99% chance of making a profit by investing in equities. Please bear in mind these probabilities apply to  a global stock market index rather than individual stock markets or companies.

But the message is straightforward, the longer you invest in equities, the less likely you are to lose money.  If you choose to invest in the stock market, consider a long time horizon and switch off Bloomberg TV.

Brian Durrant

Staff Matters

  • Conçerva’s younger cohort have continued to push ahead with their professional development.
  • Adam Robinson has achieved his Certificate in Regulated Financial Services Operations, while Lauren Emmett has passed her first exam since joining the company. We are sure that they are both already looking forward to their next steps on the path to qualifying as Independent Financial Advisers.
  • Also this month Conçerva welcomed a new member of the team in Mairead Richardson who joins us as our new Apprentice. In light of our new addition, Adam has moved to a trainee Paraplanning role where he will gain further knowledge and insights into the financial services industry.

Statistical Information

Last Month This Month Change
CPI 2.4% 2.5% +0.1%
RPI 3.4% 3.4% +0.0%


UK Consumer Price Inflation

July 2018 August 2018 Change
Base Rate 0.50% 0.75% +0.25%


The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to increase the Bank of England Base Rate for the second time in six months and it now stands at its highest level since March 2009.

MPC Meeting – Summary and Minutes